Blog | Burney Wealth Management

Economic & Market Review: Q3 2024 [Webinar Summary]

Written by Andy Pratt, CFA, CAIA | 10.22.2024

Presenters:  Lowell Pratt, CFA, Andy Pratt, CFA, CAIA, and Adam Newman, CFA, CFP®, MT, RICP®

Here is the webinar recording from October 16th, 2024. You can browse the topics discussed and main takeaways using the sections and time stamps below:

Click the time-stamp in each section title, and you will jump right to that part of the video on a new screen!

Introduction and CNBC Recognition (00:04)

  • Recognized as the number one Financial Advisor in the State of Virginia by CNBC*

  • Jumped from number 9 to number 3 nationally

  • Reflection of 50 years of commitment to client service

Q3 Market Performance Overview (02:48)

  • Recapped the previous decline, but the market has since recovered

  • Most asset classes exceeded their typical quarterly averages

  • US equities continued to perform well

  • Overseas markets had a resurgence

Long-term Market Performance (04:22)

  • Reviewed 1, 5, and 10 year performance numbers

  • International markets starting to bounce back

  • US equity-driven market over the last 10 years

  • Encouraging trends for domestic investments

Recent Bull Market Analysis (06:48)

  • Bull vs. Bear market context

  • The average bull market lasts about 5.5 years historically

  • The current bull market is about 2 years in

  • Discussed sustainability of current market trends

Election Impact on Markets (12:30)

  • Elections have little impact on the stock market

  • No significant difference in market performance during election years

  • Economic factors more important than election outcomes

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts and Market Impact (14:51)

  • Fed cutting rates marks a turning point in the battle against inflation

  • Rate cuts don't necessarily favor one part of the market over another

  • Context matters more than the rate cut itself

The Reason for Rate Cuts Is Important (16:35)

  • Over the last 10 rate cut cycles, the reason for the cut was a recession four times, a growth scare three times, and normalization three times

  • When the reason was a growth scare or normalization, the market did well

  • When the reason was a recession, the market underperformed

  • This is something to keep watching, but Goldman Sachs economists only predict a 20% of recession over the next 12 months

Rate Cuts Don't Predict Size and Style Phase (20:04)

  • A falling interest rate environment does not necessarily predict the size and style phase

  • There have been both pro-small cap and pro-large cap phases following the first interest rate cut

  • That said, Growth stocks outperformed Value stocks in 4 of the last 5 rate cut cycles and that is where we continue to lean today

Size and Style Factors in Investing (22:52)

  • Much better stock market breadth in the third quarter
  • Smaller companies outperformed larger companies and Value had the edge over Growth
  • Sign of a healthy market to see this breadth

Momentum (24:20)

  • Momentum has been the best performing factor in 2024

  • Definition of momentum and discussion of the academic evidence for the factor

  • Consider stock price momentum in your investing strategy

Q&A Session (29:24)

  • Addressed questions about the bond outlook

  • Discussed potential changes in estate tax laws

  • Explored the impact of political tensions on the global economy

  • Answered queries about national debt and its effect on markets

CNBC’s annual FA 100 ranking was published on 10/2/2024 for the year 2024.  The Burney Company did not pay CNBC any compensation for being considered for the list, however, Burney Company does pay a licensing fee to use the CNBC logo in marketing materials.  A link to the CNBC selection criteria can be found by going to https://cnb.cx/3Pg6FVh. The CNBC award was given to The Burney Company, the parent company which encompasses nine other Affiliated Portfolio Managers, and not Burney Wealth Management.