Q&A Special: International Stocks, Tariffs, Volatility & What to Expect in 2026 | Ep 30

Watch or listen to the episode below:

This week's episode breaks from the usual format. Instead of Adam and Andy picking topics, they're sharing the Q&A section from the quarterly webinar on January 21, 2026. The themes that emerged tell you exactly what's on investors' minds heading into 2026.

International stocks dominated the question queue. Clients wanted strategy details, allocation guidance, and clarity on whether tariff concerns should change their approach. Volatility questions came next, particularly after the market's 2% down day earlier in the week. Bitcoin, gold, AI investing, and tax planning rounded out the conversation.

Accessing International Markets

Andy kicked things off by explaining Burney's approach to international investing. The firm's expertise centers on U.S. equity investing and individual stock selection. For international exposure, they use funds.

The reasoning: Large fund companies have boots-on-the-ground analysts in these markets. They can transact on local exchanges in India, China, Germany, and elsewhere. They understand the cultures, the regulatory environments, the business dynamics in ways that would be nearly impossible to replicate from the U.S.

Burney spends significant time on due diligence for these funds. They're not just looking for international exposure. They follow research to identify funds where stock premiums actually exist (small cap value, profitability factors). The funds they use have delivered strong results.

Adam added the broader "why invest internationally" context. About 60% of global market capitalization sits in U.S. companies. The other 40% is outside our borders. That's tens of thousands of investment opportunities ignored if you only invest domestically.

The allocation framework: 70-80% of your stock bucket should be domestic, 20-30% international. That provides meaningful diversification without abandoning the strength of U.S. markets.

The Tariff Question That Won't Go Away

Someone asked whether developed foreign markets make better short-term investments given policy uncertainty. Andy's response cut straight to the challenge of short-term predictions.

Stock returns over medium and long periods track earnings. In the short term, it's mostly noise. International stocks last outperformed in 2017 on a calendar year basis. There have been head fakes since then.

Markets ignore headlines more than people realize. Policy is incredibly hard to predict. Nobody knows what's happening next month or what magnitude any changes will have.

Adam emphasized the real benefits of foreign markets: diversification through different currencies, different economies, access to major global businesses. That's the driver, not trying to time three-month performance windows based on tariff speculation.

Andy brought data to the tariff discussion. If you'd come into 2025 knowing the tariff levels that would be announced, you'd assume international stocks would struggle. The opposite happened. During April's U.S. market selloff, international markets held up far better. The U.S. was among the worst-performing stock markets globally during that window.

Tariffs are higher than they were in early 2024. But they're not high enough to stop international trade completely. Economic growth continues. U.S. stocks grow. International stocks grow. Tariffs function more as a negotiating tool than something with severe economic consequences, at least so far.

Short-term volatility around tariff talk will continue. But Andy remains skeptical this sparks some extended bear market.

Headlines That May Have Caused Unnecessary Fear

Questions about Trump's Greenland threats and potential economic slowdowns in Russia and Iran gave Adam and Andy a chance to separate noise from signal.

Andy's take on Greenland: distraction. It falls into the category of things that grab attention but have no meaningful investment impact. Adam agreed, framing it through the lens of direct impact on consumers and businesses. Does this affect their ability to grow? If the answer is no, take it off the fear menu.

On Russia and Iran economic concerns, they pointed out these economies are tiny relative to global GDP. Probably smaller than individual U.S. states. Periods where these economies have been essentially closed off from the rest of the world didn't move global markets. Interesting news, but not investment-relevant.

Making Sense of Volatility

Andy's response to the volatility question provided useful benchmarks. Expect volatility every year. In fact, volatility is the price you pay for the ability to achieve stock market returns. You can't get excess returns if you can't stomach the swings.

Expected frequency based on past trends:

• Dozens of 1-2% down days yearly
• One 10% correction per year
• One 20% bear market every four or five years

The recent 2% down day shouldn't spark panic. It should be expected multiple times annually. The one guarantee in investing: you will go through rough patches. How you react determines success.

Adam pointed to the VIX (the market's fear gauge) which spiked dramatically in April 2025 then stayed low for most of the year. The back half of 2025 had very few volatility spikes. So any turbulence now feels more dramatic than it actually is, like hitting a bump on a previously smooth flight.

Someone specifically asked about the "considerable selloff" and global turmoil. Andy pushed back on the framing. Days like that are completely normal. Even healthy. It means the market is pricing in risk adequately rather than ignoring it.

The tariff conversation intensified over the weekend, so the market priced in a higher probability of trade war escalation. That's how markets function. From the October 2022 bottom, we're up over 90%. A 2% dip barely registers in that context.

Bitcoin, Gold, and Chasing Recent Winners

The Bitcoin question is simple: Is now a good time to invest? Andy called it tempting given the drop from $120,000-130,000 down to around $90,000. But tempting doesn't mean smart.

Bitcoin is absolutely speculative. You can make a lot of money. You can lose a lot of money. Any allocation should be an amount you're fine losing. If you make significant gains, great. If you lose it all, that's okay too.

The challenge with crypto: no way to model future returns. It's had multiple 90% drawdowns over its history. The U.S. stock market? Maybe during the Great Depression, but it's not a regular occurrence. In crypto, 90% drops seem to happen pretty regularly.

Gold generated more nuanced discussion given its recent surge. Like Bitcoin, gold doesn't produce income. Valuation becomes difficult. Gold has value largely because people think it's valuable.

Despite the strong recent performance, Burney doesn't allocate to gold or other commodities. The reason: portfolio optimization. When they run the math on which asset classes maximize risk-adjusted returns at different risk levels, gold doesn't make the cut.

Over the long term, gold shows equity-like volatility but substandard returns. It's not as diversifying as people think. Many view it as an inflation hedge, but stocks historically outperform gold and also hedge inflation.

Andy cautioned against chasing the trend now. This might be a classic "buy high" trap. Great for people already invested, but jumping in after a major run carries risk.

Adam added that gold's returns tend to concentrate in very short windows. It can go decades without making new all-time highs, then spike suddenly. You need iron patience to wait that long. That's why many view it as a trading asset rather than a core allocation.

Tax Changes Creating Unnoticed Stimulus

Adam called tax planning one of the underappreciated stories for 2026. Working through client tax projections over the past six months, he's seeing significant tax savings from the Big Beautiful Bill.

The biggest drivers: the new SALT cap limit (much higher for many people) and the senior deduction. For business owners, extended bonus depreciation matters too.

The result: a lot of cash hitting the system through tax refunds. Adam sees this as a big positive for investments, markets, and the economy in 2026.

The changes rolled out across multiple years. Last year brought the senior deduction and SALT cap increases. This year brings charitable giving changes.

For those who don't itemize but are charitably inclined: you can now deduct $1,000 (single filers) or $2,000 (married filing joint) for charitable giving in 2026. Similar to the COVID-era provision but higher amounts.

For those who do itemize: there's now a half percent of AGI floor before you can start deducting charitable gifts. Taking from one pocket, giving to another. Higher earners who itemize wait longer to deduct. But non-itemizers get a new write-off they didn't have before.

Adam frames it as a stimulus. More cash in pockets, whether spent on goods and services or reinvested in markets, provides economic tailwind.

Small Caps, AI, and Looking Ahead

Questions about small cap underperformance and AI investment risks rounded out the session. On small caps, Andy pointed to interest rates as a major factor beyond tariffs.

Smaller companies carry more debt than large caps. Apple, Microsoft, Google sit on huge cash hoards. Smaller companies fund via debt. There's a wall of debt coming due in 2027-2028-2030. Where interest rates land when that debt needs refinancing will meaningfully impact smaller company financials.

If rates fall, that's potentially bullish for small caps. If they stay elevated, it increases borrowing costs and pressures profitability. Small caps have consistently missed earnings expectations for several years now. Until that reverses, the breakout remains elusive.

On AI concerns about a potential slowdown, Andy pointed out we already saw this play out. February through March 2025 brought the DeepSeek scare from China. Could AI models work without NVIDIA chips? AI stocks tanked briefly. Then the trend came roaring back.

There's overinvestment risk if companies can't monetize the massive spending. But that's more long-term risk than short-term. Momentum remains strong. Hard to see what knocks it off course near-term.

Adam pushed back on the narrative that AI is propping up the entire market. Look at sector-level returns and earnings growth. Financials show double-digit earnings growth. This is much bigger than just an AI story.

Two things happening simultaneously: AI investment reaching unprecedented levels, and non-AI sectors performing incredibly well. The economy is getting stronger, not slowing.

Deploying Cash in Uncertain Times

The final question asked about first quarter expectations. Adam wisely avoided a three-month market prediction but offered historical context. Average quarterly return for U.S. equities: roughly 2%. Markets trend up 75% of the time.

Markets build on strength, and we're in a period of strength. But surprises happen (like the recent 2% down day), making specific predictions difficult.

Andy addressed what he saw as the real question: people holding cash, unsure when to deploy it. Maybe they got spooked in 2025, moved to money markets, and now wonder about timing.

His perspective: dollar cost averaging. Deploy smaller chunks over a pre-specified timeline. This lets you start participating in gains. If the market declines, you still have cash to deploy at lower prices.

It's a regret-minimization approach. You won't nail the perfect timing, but you won't miss the entire move either.

The broader theme across all these questions: markets reward patience and discipline. International diversification matters even when it feels unnecessary. Volatility is normal, not a warning sign. Speculative assets like Bitcoin and gold deserve skepticism despite recent returns. And cash sitting on the sidelines today might look like a missed opportunity tomorrow.

Listen to the full conversation on Long Story Short: