Stop Waiting for the Market Crash

There is a phrase making the rounds again in boardrooms, at dinner tables, and in the kind of quiet conversations that happen between successful people who have worked hard for what they’ve built. You’ve probably said it yourself, or at least thought it: the market feels too hot. Something has to give.

It’s an understandable reaction. The S&P 500 has climbed more than 110% since the bull market began in October 2022, and headlines have kept a steady drumbeat about stretched valuations. Your instincts say things can’t keep going up forever, and somewhere in the back of your mind a voice whispers that maybe now is the time to get cautious, to wait things out, to protect what you have.

That voice sounds like wisdom. The data suggests otherwise.

The Phrase That Has Cost Investors a Fortune

“Due for a pullback” implies that markets follow a kind of cosmic accounting where gains must eventually be repaid on a predictable schedule. But markets don’t work that way, and the historical record is unambiguous on this point.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has experienced 73 separate pullbacks of 5% or more, 26 corrections of 10% or more, and 11 bear markets of 20% or more. Volatility isn’t an anomaly. It’s the cost of admission, and long-term investors have always been rewarded for paying it. Every bear market in that history has been followed by a bull market, and the gains in bull cycles have dramatically outpaced the losses in bear cycles. The current bull market has lasted 1,324 days, still below the historical average of 1,964 days. By duration alone, we are not in unusual territory.

All-Time Highs Are Not a Warning Sign

One of the most persistent anxieties right now is the sense that investing near all-time highs must be dangerous. This feels intuitive. It isn’t accurate.

Looking at average forward returns for the S&P 500 since 1950, investing at all-time highs has produced virtually identical results to investing on any other day. The average one-year forward return at all-time highs is 9.3%, compared to 9.2% on all other days. History doesn’t punish investors for buying at peaks. Consider a hypothetical investor with the worst possible timing, someone who invested only at the peak of every bull market since 1950. Eleven peaks, eleven worst-possible moments, and the average annualized return held through today was still 8.9% per year.

Time, Not Timing 

Since 1950, the probability that the S&P 500 will be higher after any given one-year period is 74%. Extend that to ten years and the odds climb to 93%. Over every rolling 20-year period in that history, the market has finished higher 100% of the time.

This is why the instinct to wait, to hold cash until things look clearer or sit out until the market settles down, tends to destroy value rather than protect it. The clearer moment rarely arrives, and the cost of missing even a handful of the market’s best days is substantial. Those best days tend to cluster near the worst ones, which means the investors most likely to miss them are those who stepped aside during the turbulence.

The Question That Actually Matters

The real question isn’t whether the market will pull back. It’s whether it matters to you if it does.

That answer depends on how your wealth is structured, which accounts you’re drawing from, when you need liquidity, and what your cash flow picture looks like across the next decade. A well-constructed plan doesn’t require you to predict markets. It’s built to withstand volatility without requiring you to react to it.

For high earners in Nashville, the complexity of your financial picture, including business income, equity compensation, real estate, and deferred compensation, means the stakes of a reactive decision are higher, not lower. Ensuring a shift in investment strategy doesn’t create unintended tax consequences or disrupt your long-term goals requires a team that can model the full picture before you move.

Markets will pull back. They always do, and they have always recovered. The antidote to market anxiety isn’t a better prediction. It’s a better plan, one built around your cash flow, your tax situation, and your goals rather than the headlines of the moment.

Curious to see what a fully integrated approach looks like for your situation? Schedule a conversation with our Nashville team at burneywealth.com/nashville.

Important Disclosures

Burney Wealth Management has been a fee-only fiduciary since 1974. We are ranked #4 on the latest CNBC FA 100, and our Nashville office provides tax-centric wealth and investment management to families and professionals across Middle Tennessee. Come see us at 105 West Park Drive, Suite 370 in Brentwood. Learn more at burneywealth.com/nashville.

CNBC’s annual FA 100 ranking was published on 10/1/2025 for the year 2025. The Burney Company did not pay CNBC any compensation for being considered for the list; however, Burney Company does pay a licensing fee to use the CNBC logo in marketing materials. A link to the CNBC selection criteria can be found by going to https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/01/financial-advisor-100-methodology-2025.html. The CNBC award was given to The Burney Company, which includes portfolio managers associated with Burney Wealth Management and nine other affiliated portfolio managers.

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